Friday, September 28, 2007

The First Post: Beware Russia, energy superpower

The First Post: Beware Russia, energy superpower: "In a world concerned with terrorism, genocide and nuclear-powered despots, Vladimir Putin's Russia is assembling an economic machine powerful enough to force Europe, the US and Asia to their knees. It does not involve uranium, explosives or suicide bombers, but the natural resources that power the global economy. Russia will soon exert such sway over the supply of oil and natural gas that the OPEC crisis of the mid-1970s could seem trivial. Its pipelines will flow east into Asia and west into Europe and tankers will sail from Siberia to California. Russia will soon have such control over energy supply and pricing that it will be able to do anything it wants politically. Imagine this scenario. Europe is importing around one-third of its natural gas from Russia. Putin, or his successor, has an argument with the EU over democratic reform in a former Soviet state. Meanwhile, China is hungry for more natural gas. Russia changes the flow of its pipelines, channelling more to China and less to Europe, without any drop in its own revenue. Europe's industrial costs rocket, home heating becomes exorbitant and the EU economy collapses.
It was scarcely noticed during the dog days of August, but Russia has now overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world's largest producer of oil. It already dominates natural gas. Around £210m a day in oil and gas tax revenues now pour into the Russian treasury. Russia is now an oil and gas economy, with 52 per cent of all its state revenues and 35 per cent of its exports coming from the energy industry."

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