Thursday, May 08, 2008

Recession, recession, where's the recession?

Mr Elder knows how to make things easy to understand about the economy.

Recession, recession, where's the recession?: "'It's a recession,' said former President Harry Truman, 'when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.'

For people facing home foreclosure, job loss or the struggle of paying high gas prices, the definition of a recession seems immaterial and insignificant. True.

But during an election year, the media's constant use or expectation of 'recession' does matter. Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic Party's likely nominee, already considers the U.S. economy 'in a recession.'

So are we – at least as economists commonly define the term?

No – not even close.

A recent typical news wire story, however, goes like this: '(George W.) Bush's news conference … appeared to be a pre-emptive measure of sorts, as it came a day before the release of statistics on the nation's gross domestic product for January through March. The common definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, and many expect Wednesday's report to provide the first official confirmation of a slide.'"

3 comments:

SBVOR said...

It is increasingly unlikely that we are currently in a recession:
================================
The Recession of 2008 That Wasn’t?
================================

Belisarius said...

That is a great
page you put
together. Thanks
for the link.

SBVOR said...

Belisarius,

You're most welcome.

I posted a new one today.

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